🔹Hyperliquid prints, AAVE bleeds
Get rid of the noise. Signals of what matters in crypto.
I’ll give it that, crypto is holding up surprisingly well, and crypto AI tokens are pumping. But the macro outlook is ugly, and I think tradfi is seriously underpricing what’s happening. I’m no geopolitics expert, but the feeling everyone is getting is that the Iran war isn’t ending anytime soon. Trump hasn’t achieved anything meaningful, so there’s no “face-saving” exit. The oil spike and its downstream effects on the economy are going to be felt over the coming months. Not calling a recession, maybe, but definitely not a tailwind. Yet the S&P is at pre-war levels.
Crypto is outperforming equities right now, which is cool to see. Most likely just a relief bounce from being deeply oversold, but I’ll take it. Crypto in general feels a bit bottom-ish, and it’s great to see some strength again. That said, I’m not comfortable deploying in this environment. Watching.
Hyperliquid is its own asset class
At some point Hyperliquid stopped being a DeFi protocol and became its own subcategory of crypto, haha. Last week it crossed $4 trillion in cumulative perp volume. The Assistance Fund, which buys back and burns HYPE using protocol revenue, just hit $1B in total buybacks, permanently removing 41.71M HYPE (4.17% of total supply) from circulation. This thing is printing, in a bear market.
But the more interesting story is RWA trading. Over the past two weeks, Hyperliquid has repeatedly broken its own records: $1.3B in open interest, $1.4B in weekend volume on commodities, oil, metals, and equity indices. When traditional markets are closed, Hyperliquid is the only venue with real price discovery running. Oil was moving over the weekend. Hyperliquid was the only market. That's the vision playing out in real time.
Trade.xyz, the procol issuing perps through HIP-3 it’s likely the best farm rn.
Someone swapped $50M into $36k
On March 12, a user swapped $50.4M of aEthUSDT through the CoW Swap widget on Aave’s interface, and received approximately $36,000 worth of AAVE in return. Largest execution loss in DeFi history.
Both teams published post-mortems. The story Aave told: illiquid market, user clicked through a “High price impact (99.9%)” warning on mobile and confirmed they accepted a potential 100% loss. Technically true. But CoW’s post-mortem told a uglier story… A stale hardcoded gas ceiling (legacy code, since fixed) rejected better-priced quotes. What was left was the worst possible execution. On top of that, apparently the transaction leaked from the private mempool, enabling a massive backrun: Titan Builder extracted ~$34M in ETH, and a MEV bot made ~$9.9M via sandwich attack.
Crypto
Polymarket is up only, volume up 600% and users ~63% YoY →
Solana stablecoin volume hit $650B in February → double the prior month. Likely linked to AI agents narrative. Transacting in stables, on a fast and cheap chain.
Token2049 Dubai rescheduled to 2026 → was looking forward to this one. But honestly, glad I hadn't booked the trip yet. Middle East situation is too sketchy right now.
Ethereum Foundation published their mandate → genuinely like it. Finally some clarity and commitment. They've done damage along the way, but better late than never.
Kraken building an execution engine for AI agents → seamless crypto access for agents. Kraken's been cooking lately.
DeFi
Sky slashed buybacks by 87% → precautionary move to build stablecoin reserves amid the Iran war. For 3 months only, then reassess. makes sense given the macro.
Lido launching stablecoin vaults → consolidating the Earn program (launched Sept '25) into earnETH and earnUSD. Quietly building something..
Unichain “success story” L2s are the future!! (lol) → down from $900M peak TVL to $49M after $21M in incentives spent
Metamask integrating Uniswap API → direct access to Uniswap products from the most used wallet. Clean.
TradFi
SEC and CFTC partnering on crypto policy coordination → "support lawful innovation, uphold market integrity, protect investors." Good to see adults in the room talking to each other, haha.
CFTC issues first guidance on manipulation in prediction markets → very much needed.
VC
didn’t come across interesting VC stuff this week
From Great Minds
Wintermute on BTC mining cycle → miners getting squeezed, difficulty keeps adjusting up while BTC price dropped, margins are thin. And the AI pivot is real: datacenters are shifting compute toward AI workloads where demand (and margins) are way higher. Rough cycle for miners.
Increase your surface are for luck, anon → nice post, read it. Must admit for me it was the same.
Trading on a perp DEX that hasn’t launched a token yet might still be +EV. Among the new ones, Extended is the best pick right now: smooth interface, wide token coverage, and an overall Hyperliquid-like feel. It’s the only one that actually feels ready for serious traders.
Extended - The ref link gives 10% off fees
Vest Markets - It gives you 10% boost in rewards.
Pacifica - Gives you access to beta.
If you found this worth your time, pass it to a friend. Means a lot. Catch you next week🫡
Disclosure: I am exposed to crypto and may own assets mentioned in this post. This article is meant for informational purposes only and should NOT be considered as investment advice. This research is independent and unrelated to my professional work. The views expressed are my own and do not reflect those of my employer. NFA